Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
