A mere 60 days prior when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival they must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
